Oil, "The Fed", and other Whoppers

"$80 Oil About to Be a Distant Memory"

The price of oil is on the doorstep of $80 per barrel. This $80 level continues to be discussed as some sort of "benchmark" or "psychological level". It's talked up as a "key level of resistance".

Truth is, the price of oil is going one of two places: Up sharply or down sharply.

All this talk of "$80 oil" will be distant memory soon enough. I believe we'll see $100 oil before $50 oil. If I was going to place a bet on oil, it would be up, not down.

Regardless of what you believe, there are two ways you can play oil: Buy USO (if you think oil goes higher) or buy DUG (if you think oil goes lower). Either way, if you pick the winning horse you'll make out like a bandit.

I just don't think the price of oil will hang around $80 for long.

"The 'fed'"

CNBC's recurring character, Joe Kernen, said this morning, "We're now less than a week away from what could be the most important 'fed decision' in years." Joe then asked, "Will you be ready for it?"

I love it. The baloney is thick these days. "could be".

Yes, I suppose the next "fed" meeting "could be" "the most important" in years. Hey, then again, it "could not be", too. I guess. Or, maybe not.

The "most important" "fed" meeting in years will be the LAST "fed" meeting. Of course, you can forget that happening in your life time. There's too much money in the business of stealing from Americans what our founding fathers died for - namely, our own money. But, hey, that's another commentary for another day.

Last night, Jim "the shill" Cramer began the monologue on his canned, scripted, daily fictional account of the markets with, "What a day 'we' had on wall street. The dow jones average up 181 points. You know what it looks like, don't you? Looks like 'the fed's' starting to listen to Cramer - at least for today. That means you need to get some 'offensive players' on 'the field'. You need some 'raw excitement', some 'scoring ability'."

The recurring character of Jim "the shill" Cramer is one in a long line of nuts who want you to buy stocks because 'the fed' will cut rates in a couple weeks. The cavalcade of "analysts", pundits, and CNBC cast members who argue it's time to buy because "the fed" will lower rates in a week grows daily. The character of Jim "the shill" Cramer is not alone in "his" opinions, just the nuttiest nut in the sack.

Oh, how I long for a show on CNBC of my own. One where I would get to be the counterpoint to the points made by the likes of Jim Cramer. My first show would be devoted to the baloney about 'fed' rate cuts.

If I told you that every person on wall street thought something would happen, and that something would guarantee another something would happen, AND, the thing they thought was in the future - AND you could place bets on that thing. Would you place a bet on that thing A) Actually happening, and B) It having the 'guaranteed' effect?

If that "something" was a rate cut by "the fed" and the "guaranteed effect" was that stock prices would soar to new highs, you'd be a fool to bet with dice-rollers like Jim Cramer. The last decade of rate decreases and increases were directly in line with a correlary move in the S&P 500.

It's so obvious that I wonder if the Jim Cramers of the world are just flat out liars. There just cannot be any way an intelligent (read: retarded or higher) person could look at the facts (the real facts, not the made up, trumped up, ginned up poppycock you hear on CNBC) and charts and come to any other conclusion:

Every time they've cut rates in the last decade stocks continued lower. Every time rates were raised, stocks plowed higher.

(Of course, I thought that there was no way George Bush would be re-elected after the first round of lies, Constitution-shredding, and socialist communism.)

So, if you are one of the hundred or so shut-ins, high-schoolers, or "Dear Jim, I've got $500 to 'invest' in my Ameritrade account" who account for what must be his core audience, and you believe rates will be cut, I suggest you do not "back up the truck" and start to buy stocks for "raw excitement" right about now.

Hey, I could be wrong. But, I'll go with a decade of empirical evidence over the "advice" the mainest of the mainstream on this one.

If rates are cut, by the way, they will be cut in an attempt to prop up an ever-weakening US economy. Which, by the way, would be at odds with the last whopper told by the CNBC "task force" in 2006.

The last whopper told by the CNBC "task force" was that you buy stocks in 2007 because the economy was going to be "fantastic" and that the "only question" was "how long" could the "economic nirvana" of the "goldilocks economy" "go on".

The economy is not "fantastic", the "only question" of "how long" the "economic nirvana" would last was answered with a resounding THUD, and as for "goldilocks", well, she's out back servicing some executives from a Chinese Toy company.