The "economic data" this morning was bad. There's no way to spin it. Alas, CNBC (et al) did their best, though. But, hey, that's why I'm here - to give you the truth!
Wal-Mart says this holiday season is shaping up to be BAD. Trust me on this, folks, it's not good news to say your sales will be flat. You can believe the talking-heads on CNBC who say this is a Wal-Mart-only problem if you'd like, but you will be "disappointed" later. Wal-Mart represents 10% of the retail business in the US and as a barometer of the economy, the reading continues to be negative.
You may have seen the headline that, "Consumer Spending Rebounded" in October. But, look at the numbers: Consumer Spending moved up .2% in October. The MARGIN OF ERROR for that statistic must be greater than.2%. But, that caveat aside, keep in mind that "all this" consumer spending is on plastic, worthless junk from China (et al) and at GREATLY REDUCED prices. To put things in perspective, this "good" number on consumer spending is like if you spent $1000 on junk you didn't need in September and then spent $1002 in October. WHOOPEE!!!
The other "big" numbers was "solid" income growth of .4%. This is a curious number. Here's why: You know how we're told that there is "no inflation"? (In fact, the inflation numbers today show only 2.4% over the previous year - LOL!) Well, you can't have "no inflation" with rising consumer spending and rising incomes. Something's not right.
At this point,the inflation debate isreally moot anyway. Debt is out of control, savings are non-existant, the "wealth effect" created by the Real Estate boomdwindles daily, and thelast bastion of hope for investors(namely, the "all-time high" on theDow) is going "bye bye". Folks don't have money to spend on junk anymore - at inflated or non-deflated prices.
A number you did not get in any "CNBC Alert" is that "...the personal savings rate remained in negative territory for the 19th consecutive month. It stood at a negative 0.6 percent in October, slightly better than the negative 0.7 percent of September. That means that Americans were still borrowing or dipping into savings to finance their consumption." (Source: AP) Then, the Chicago Purchasing Managers number cames out. If you didn't see them, here's the scoop: The forecast called for an INCREASE. What we got was a HUGE and WEAK DECREASE. All components of the number were weak. This number suggests (lol) that manufacturing is, uh, WEAK. No, make that SURPRISINGLY (not to YOU, my dear reader) weak.
Jobless claims also rose AGAIN. Let me say that AGAIN. Jobless claims rose AGAIN. The "headline" was that "incomes rose" but all that suggests is that the "haves" are "having" more while the "have nots" are growing in number.
Oh yeah, the dollar weakened again today, as well. The price of Gold andSilver rose today, too. And, did I mention that the price of Oil was up again today (supply concerns)? And, HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT: Natural Gas supplies dropped HUGE this month. What a surprise! You mean, oil and gas supplies are down? No way. What a shock. No chance the "energy price declines" over the last few months were, uh, manipulate?
Look at this exchange with Michelle Cabruso-Cabrera and Josh Sadler, UBS Natural Gas Trader:
Michelle: The other thing that I find confusing, Josh, why do we have such a big draw when it hasn't been thatcold yet?
Josh: Well, I think it's... it'svarious parts of the country that have actually been pretty cold and so you're seeing that there's actually a... uh... an... extra effect when you do get the cold weather in the demand centers.Yousee an added-on impact. And you're seeing increased demand relative to the weather.
I laughed out loud when I heard Josh's "answer". It's hilarious to see these mainstream cats try to explain the unexplainable. Michelle's question was a good one. The answer to Michelle's question is, "We manipulate these markets. We pounded the price of Natural Gas down, and bought a ton of it. Now, we're running it back up."
Well, duh.
Stay short this market and long all those boring ETFs. You'll be glad you did. Sooner, rather than later.
Sincerely, Don Harrold
"I don't guarantee any stock I talk about will go up or down, I don't guarantee you'll make money, and I don't guarantee that the information I give you will get to you in time for you to make a trade (I can't guarantee your email service, for example). What I DO GUARANTEE is that I'll do my best to filter out the baloney and deliver the best intra-day advice I can!"
